Every weekend, something magical happens in football. A small club beats a giant. A team that was supposed to lose by three goals ends up winning. Bookmakers are left stunned, fans are in disbelief, and bettors who predicted the upset are counting their winnings.
In the world of sports betting, this is called an upset — when the underdog beats the favorite. And while it might look like pure luck from the outside, smart bettors know how to spot these upset opportunities before they happen.
In this article, we’ll break down exactly how to find value in underdogs. You’ll learn what signs to look for, how to read between the odds, and how to turn those small bets into big paydays.
Let’s turn you from a casual bettor into someone who sees what others miss.
Betting Tips for Today:
What Is an “Upset” in Betting?
An upset happens when:
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A big underdog wins (for example, odds of 5.00 or higher)
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A team nobody expects to win pulls it off
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The favorite underperforms or gets caught off guard
Example:
Team A has odds of 1.40 to win. Team B is at 7.50. Everyone expects Team A to win easily. But Team B scores first, plays tight defense, and wins 1-0. That’s an upset.
And guess what? They happen every week in leagues around the world.
Why Spotting Upsets Matters
Bookmakers try to balance risk. They set odds based on data and public opinion. But they’re not perfect. Sometimes they:
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Overrate big teams
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Underrate smaller clubs
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Miss important factors like fatigue or motivation
When this happens, smart bettors find value in the odds — that’s where the profit is hiding.
1. Look for Teams on the Rise (Even If Nobody’s Watching)
Just because a team is low in the standings doesn’t mean they’re weak. Sometimes, they’ve just had bad luck or tough fixtures early in the season.
Signs a team is improving:
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They’ve lost narrowly to top teams
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They’ve scored more than expected
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Their new players are starting to gel
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They’ve had recent away draws or close games
If the public still sees them as weak, odds will remain high — and that’s your window.
Example:
A bottom-three team that just drew against the league leader and lost by one goal to the second-best club? That’s not a bad team — that’s a team warming up.
2. Watch for Complacency from Big Teams
Big clubs sometimes play with less focus against smaller teams, especially:
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Before or after Champions League matches
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In midweek games with tired legs
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When they’ve already secured the title or top-four finish
Bookmakers still favor them heavily, but the mental edge disappears, and they become vulnerable.
Look for:
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Rotated lineups
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Lack of motivation
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Coach interviews downplaying the match
These are perfect spots to back a focused underdog or even try a double chance (draw or underdog win).
3. Look at Match Timing and Schedule Pressure
Football teams are human. They get tired. They lose focus. And their form drops when the schedule is tight.
Underdogs are more likely to pull off an upset when:
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The favorite is playing their third match in 7 days
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There’s travel fatigue, especially after international breaks
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The weather or pitch conditions favor a slower game
Example: A strong Spanish team plays Thursday night in Europe, travels 3,000 km, and then plays a Sunday afternoon away game in poor weather? That’s a trap game — perfect for an upset pick.
4. Focus on Local Derbies and Rivalries
Derbies bring emotion, aggression, and often surprise results.
Even if one team is much stronger on paper, local rivalries can level the field. Players push harder. Fans scream louder. And underdogs rise to the occasion.
Upsets happen more often in:
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Local derbies (same city or region)
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High-pressure rivalries (even across leagues)
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Cup competitions (where smaller teams face giants)
Tip: Check H2H records. You’ll often find unexpected balance in past derby meetings.
5. Use Advanced Stats Like xG and xPTS
If you really want to dig deep, check out:
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xG (expected goals)
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xPTS (expected points)
These tell you how well teams are performing beyond the final score.
Example: A team that loses 2-1 but had 2.5 xG might have played much better than it seems. Meanwhile, a winning team with only 0.4 xG might have gotten lucky.
When an underdog’s xG and xPTS are higher than their league position suggests — that’s a sign they’re undervalued.
Great sites to use:
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Understat.com
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FotMob
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Infogol
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WhoScored
6. Watch the Odds Movement
The betting markets tell a story. If:
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An underdog opens at 6.50
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Hours later, they drop to 4.80
…then something is happening behind the scenes. Maybe a key player is back. Maybe the favorite is rotating. Maybe sharp bettors know something.
These odds shifts often signal hidden information — and smart punters take advantage early.
7. Avoid the Trap of Name Value
Here’s a mistake casual bettors often make:
They see a famous club (like Man United or Barcelona) playing a lesser-known team and automatically assume an easy win.
Bookmakers use this to their advantage. They raise the odds on the underdog because they know people will blindly bet on the big name.
Don’t bet based on team logos or past trophies. Look at today’s form. Football isn’t played in history books — it’s played in 90 minutes.
8. Use the “Draw No Bet” or “Double Chance” Safety Nets
If you’re nervous about backing an underdog to win, you don’t have to go all in.
Instead:
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Draw No Bet means you get your money back if the game ends in a draw
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Double Chance lets you win if the underdog wins or draws
The odds are lower, but the risk is smaller — and it’s a great way to back underdogs safely.
9. Focus on Cup Matches and Early Rounds
In early stages of cup competitions (like FA Cup, Coppa Italia, etc.), top teams often:
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Field weaker lineups
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Rest their starters
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Underestimate their opponents
Meanwhile, smaller teams see it as their biggest game of the season.
This is where real magic happens, and bookmakers often miss it.
Keep your eye on:
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Team lineups (especially goalkeeper rotations)
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Squad depth
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How seriously each team takes the competition
10. Start Small and Track Your Underdog Picks
If you want to get good at this, keep a log of your upset bets. Include:
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Teams
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Odds
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Why you picked it
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What happened
Over time, you’ll start to notice patterns in your wins and losses. Maybe you’re great at picking away underdogs. Maybe derbies are your strength. Use that knowledge to refine your bets.
Final Thoughts: Upsets Are Risky — But Rewarding
Let’s be clear: betting on underdogs isn’t easy. You’ll lose more often than you win.
But when you win, the rewards are huge. That’s what makes it fun, strategic, and potentially profitable.
The key is not to bet blindly. Use the right data. Pay attention to patterns. And always stay within your budget.
Because in betting, the smartest punters aren’t the ones who win every time — they’re the ones who spot value when no one else sees it.
So the next time you see a match with a big favorite and a forgotten underdog, don’t skip past it. Do your research. Ask questions. And maybe, just maybe, you’ll be the one smiling when the underdog becomes king.